High street sales growth drops

Thursday 23rd October 2008

The annual retail growth rate has fallen to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years as the High street slowdown continues.

The rate fell to 1.8 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent, according to statistics published by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) today.

There was some good news, however, retail sales actually rose 0.1 per cent in the three months to September.

The ONS claims the statistics show that "underlying three-monthly growth in retail in retail sales volume continues to slow and shows negligible growth in the most recent period".

Between August and September the volume of retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent, a fall, the ONS claims, driven by decreases in household goods stores and clothing and footwear stores.

The average weekly value of retail sales in September is estimated at £5.0 billion, 3.0 per cent higher than at the same period a year ago.

In July to September the value of sales for all retailing was 3.5 per cent higher than in the same period last year; sales by predominantly food stores were 6.0 per cent higher; sales by predominantly non-food stores were 1.1 per cent higher and sales by the non-store retailing and repair sector were 5.8 per cent higher than a year earlier.

Also from July to September the seasonally adjusted volume of sales was 2.3 per cent higher than a year earlier; within this predominantly food stores was 0.1 per cent lower, predominantly non-food stores 3.0 per cent higher and the non-store retailing and repair sector was 12.0 per cent higher.

Also today the KPMG/SPSL Retail Health Index (RHI) ratings were released.

They show the decline on the high street continued at the sale pace over the last three months as over the first half of the year – although this was above expectations.

"Looking forward to quarter four, members agreed that the outlook looked less favourable, issuing its most pessimistic set of retail health predictions yet," the thinktank found.

The body stated: "Despite the encouragement that quarter three was not quite as bad as we had feared, retail, like other sectors, is in difficulties and most significantly the anticipated further fall in customer demand will hurt retail in quarter four.

"Depending on what happens to inflation, which looks likely to ease, we are possibly looking at year on year falls in the value of total sales."

Professor John Dawson, of Universities of Edinburgh and Stirling, commenting on the KPMG/SPSL data, said: "It’s important to state that despite the somewhat negative predictions, we are not harbingers of doom.

"Yes, some smaller, weaker, just plain unlucky or poorly financed retailers will fail in the coming weeks and months. However, those wily retailers who constantly monitor and modify their entire operations, both online and in store, will come out of this difficult period fitter and stronger."

He added the coming three months will be "make or break" for retail businesses.

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